This post was published on http://civilusdefendus.wordpress.com/civil-defense/al-qaedas-7-step-plan/ on May 26, 2011.
al-Qaeda’s 7 Step Plan
KEITH R. LAVERY Security Strategies Contributor, April 27th, 2009
In early 1942 General George C. Marshall, then Chief of Staff for the U.S. Army, met with President Franklin D. Roosevelt and other military planners to create the Allied strategy to win WW2. The strategy (overall plan) was the big picture that would encompass many battles (tactical missions) at places or times forthcoming. The first stage of their strategy was to defeat Nazi Germany, while putting the Japanese in a temporary holding pattern. The focus of Allied Military brute force would be to assault Europe and once successful there then the focus would shift to the Pacific Theater. The rest is history.
In late 1996, Osama bin Laden, and his planners, created a war strategy targeting the West that was later publically announced on February 23rd, 1998, called the “World Islamic Front Against Jews and Crusaders”. His strategy, issued through a fatwa (order based on Islamic law), has an overall scheme in order to accomplish objectives through tactical missions, or terrorist attacks, fought or to be fought sometime in the future against undisclosed targets at the time of his choosing.
Ever wonder why our homeland security advisory system seems to be perpetually stuck on condition yellow signifying an elevated caution concerning a terrorist attack? We are living in an era where war has been declared against us and the military strategy aimed at our defeat has been unfolding right in front of our eyes. The fatwa issued in 1998 was the beginning of what strategists can see as the carving up of certain parts of the world until world-wide domination becomes possible. Much like our focus on battling within the European Theater of Operations to secure that front first during WW2 and then ultimately moving on into the Pacific Theater later, al-Qaeda seeks to establish dominance within certain parts of the Islamic world and then later move strengthened against the West.
The destruction of the West has been methodically planned out by al-Qaeda in advance and is intended to span nearly 20 years, having begun in 2000. As reported by the Anti Terrorism Accreditation Board, Jordanian Journalist Fouad Hussein, “considered a reliable source for information on al-Qaeda”, had been on assignment with the German magazine Spiegel Online and interviewed al-Qaeda’s military commander Saif al-Adel, who interestingly enough has operated out of Iran. As a result of that interview, the following seven steps of al-Qaeda’s war strategy of “definitive victory” toward the West had been revealed.
Known as “the Awakening”, was supposed to have lasted from 2001-2003 beginning with the 9/11 attacks (2001) and culminating with the fall of Bagdad (2003). This period is called the Awakening, because al-Qaeda military planners wanted the U.S. to attack the Islamic world and hopefully “awaken” Muslims. The 9/11 attacks were essentially the bait. This step was intentionally designed by al-Qaeda to pit U.S. military power, or the appearance of it, against the Muslim world. This step has been considered a success by al-Qaeda.
This stage seems to have closed at the end of 2006, with al-Qaeda operational planners hoping their organization would metamorphosis into a world-wide movement, which to some extent it has, and therefore has to be considered a quasi-success. What hasn’t been successful is that Arab and the “greater Islamic states” have not been publically supportive of al-Qaeda. Iraq had been the focal point of this step, where hundreds of Islamists entered the country monthly to fight during the height of operations there.
Considered to have started in 2007 and expected to progress to 2010, this phase focuses on Syria and if you have paid attention to international news events over the past 24 months there was confirmation this step is well underway. Forecasted terrorist attacks on Turkey and Israel were predicted and al-Qaeda planners hoped that by attacking Israel their organization would become more recognized by Islamic states and other Arab governments. Jordan, considered a moderate Arab nation, and U.S. ally is in danger too.
During the period of 2010 to 2013, Hussein predicts, that Arabic governments not supportive of al-Qaeda will be forced to collapse, dramatic attacks will be carried out against oil suppliers, Turkish vacation spots, cruise ships, the Gaza Strip within Israel and the U.S. economy will be specifically targeted through cyber-terrorism. Considering that our economy is faltering now, successful financial assaults could be catastrophic.
With the continued, and systematic, weakening (social, political, economic, military) of the West, Israel and Arab states in opposition to al-Qaeda, this period 2013-2016, is hoped by al-Qaeda planners that a new Islamic state, fostered by them, “will bring about a new world order”. The West won’t be able to resist this new world order possibly because of economic collapse, political instability, or any combination thereof.
Beginning around 2016 to possibly 2018 al-Qaeda hopes to initiate through its established Islamic super state a world war unlike anything we have ever seen. Many analysts fear the conflict will be nuclear. Osama bin Laden predicted that this war will be a fight “between the believers and non believers”.
Sometime around 2020, the Islamic super state will be able to declare “definitive victory” having defeated the West through direct confrontation, subversive activities, and the effects of a Middle East power vacuum resulting from collapsed moderate Arab governments.
Fact v. Fiction?
It is important to note that while steps 1-4 are concrete in terms of their past occurrence or current evidence pointing to what will most likely occur, steps 5-7 can be viewed as the hopes and dreams, without merit, of al-Qaeda. Maybe they shouldn’t be. Intelligence reports show that Osama bin Laden has visited Iran and purportedly met with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Based on his own twisted views, Ahmadinejad is not internationally known as a pacifist, having called for the destruction of Israel and continuous pursuit of nuclear technical capabilities in direct opposition to continued global sanctions.
The al-Qaeda new world order strategy timetable may be further ahead than we think when it comes to establishing a super Islamic state. If not Iran, how about Pakistan? On April 11th, 2009, reporter Paul McGeough of the Australian news service WAtoday.com.au wrote a piece titled, “West warned on nuclear terrorism threat from Pakistan”. McGeough quotes Dr. David Kilcullen, former Australian military officer and current counter-terrorism advisor to the Obama Administration, expecting Pakistan to become a failed state and form into “Talibanistan”. Dr. Kilcullen had argued Pakistan is on the verge of collapsing and could become a nation, stockpiled with about 100 nuclear warheads and possessing a standing army larger than the U.S., controlled by al-Qaeda. Dr. Kilcullen reportedly stated, “Pakistan is what keeps me awake at night”.
Here is the least you need to understand about this section:
- al-Qaeda has a long-term plan, spanning nearly 20 years, that focuses on creating an Islamic super state to defeat the West.
- Terrorist attacks are not merely conducted arbitrarily without view of the big picture.
- Behind every terrorist attack (battle) looms the overall strategy.
- Arab nations not in support of al-Qaeda are also targets. Their complete destruction is sought.
- Portions of steps 1-3 are either complete or well underway leading to intended steps 4-7.
- al-Qaeda has sought an alliance with Iran, already operates out of Syria and has made significant progress toward the governmental collapse of Pakistan, with the headquarters of al-Qaeda being situated and uncontrolled in Pakistan.